2014 NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

2014 NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions

NFL Week 4 box scores and stats included

UPDATE: September 25, 2014

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2014 NFL season.

Check out our 2014 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

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Game of the Week: Packers at Bears

Any conversation regarding the NFL's best rivalries starts with the tug-of-war between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. This Midwestern matchup has been contested 188 times, a league record, with a ridiculously close 93-89-6 series mark in favor of the Bears.

However, the Packers hold the upper hand as of late, winning seven of the past eight matchups, including an instant classic last winter, highlighted by a last-minute touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Randall Cobb in the season finale. The win vaulted the Cheeseheads to a division title while keeping the Monsters of the Midway out of the postseason. With revenge on their mind, the Bears welcome the Packers to the Windy City, serving as our WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

The Packers are viewed as one of the league's most explosive offenses. Through three weeks, it's a disposition rooted in the past rather than the present, as the club ranks 28th in total offense and averages just 18 points per outing (third-worst in the conference). Although Rodgers hasn't posted his historical eye-popping numbers, he hasn't been bad, either, finding the end zone five times versus one pick.

The process of elimination would seemingly put the spotlight on the running game, an assumption proved correct by the box scores. Eddie Lacy and the backfield have produced little of note on the ground, averaging a feeble 3.6 yards per carry. Worse, the group has more turnovers than touchdowns.

In their defense, the Packers faced a brutal slate of defenses in the opening weeks. Moreover, the defense, while far from stout, has maintained a semblance of dependability. The schedule eases up for Rodgers and company, meaning the forecast remains bright for the Lambeau faithful.

The sky is also sunny for Marc Trestman's Bears. After a heartbreaking overtime loss in the season opener, Chicago has bounced back in stellar fashion, notching road Ws in San Francisco and New York. The offense has been sound, averaging 25 points per game. More importantly, Jay Cutler seems to be on the precipice of a mid-career rejuvenation. Against a trio of tough resistances, Cutler has racked up eight scores versus two interceptions, quite the feat given No. 1 target Brandon Marshall is nowhere near full health. Once Matt Forte finds his footing (3.2 yards per carry), the Bears may boast the conference's most well-rounded attack.

Alas, all is not well in Soldier Field. Perennially flaunting a nightmarish defense, Chicago's D was anything but last year, conceding a league-high 161.4 rushing yards per game. The early returns from 2014 (144.7 yards per contest) illustrate this problem has not been alleviated. Also in disheartening news, the Bears lost All-Pro corner Charles Tillman to a season-ending triceps injury. The secondary has been energized by rookie Kyle Fuller, who leads the NFL with three interceptions, and the front seven is slightly better than last fall's turnstile performance. Nevertheless, for the Bears to be a title contender, the defense will need to raise its collective fight.

So who wins this Black-and-Blue battle? According to the award-winning WhatIfSports.com football simulation engine, the Packers come out on top 50.8 percent of the time by an average score of 25-24. For the rest of this week's scores, check below:

Please Note: The Giants-Redskins, Packers-Bears, Lions-Jets and Falcons-Vikings games were re-simulated on 9/25 to account for injuries and roster updates.

NFL Week 4 Predictions
MatchupWin %Avg. Score
Jacksonville Jaguars13.619Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers86.434Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24.920Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers75.130Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers35.018Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens65.022Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans39.121Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts60.924Simulate Game
New York Giants44.523Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins55.525Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills49.221Boxscore
@ Houston Texans50.822Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers50.825Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears49.224Simulate Game
Detroit Lions53.222Boxscore
@ New York Jets46.820Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints56.527Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys43.524Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles59.924Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers40.121Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons70.027Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings30.020Simulate Game
New England Patriots72.825Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs27.218Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins74.226Boxscore
@ Oakland Raiders25.818Simulate Game

Joel Beall is the Assistant Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jbeall@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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