2014 NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

2014 NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions

NFL Week 11 box scores and stats included

WhatIfSports.com
UPDATE: November 13, 2014

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2014 NFL season.

Check out our 2014 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

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Game of the Week: Patriots at Colts

It's been a prosperous start to the Andrew Luck Era in Indianapolis. Since taking the reins as starting quarterback, Luck has led to the Horseshoes to 28 victories in their last 41 games. Of greater note, the Colts have reached the postseason in both campaigns under Luck's direction, and are in the driver's seat of the AFC South with seven weeks to go.

Alas, it's not been all sunshine and rainbows for Luck. Like a certain Colts quarterback before him, the Stanford product has struggled mightily against the New England Patriots. In Luck's defense, at two previous engagements, it's a small sample size. Yet as Ian Fleming once wrote, “Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action.” Luck hopes to end this pattern, as the Colts welcome the Pats to the Hoosier State, serving as our WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

It's not just that Luck is 0-for-2 against the Pats in his career. It's how. In 42 professional games not against New England (including postseason), Luck has found the end zone 85 times, with 37 interceptions in that span. In his two soirees against Bill Belichick, those figures drop to four and seven, with a lost fumble thrown in for good measure. The Patriots make a lot of adversarial arms look bad, and sometimes it's easy to forget that Luck is only 25 years old. Nevertheless, for the Colts to have a fighting shot on Sunday, the Indianapolis signal caller will need to alleviate such carelessness with the pigskin.

There's also the matter of rising to the challenge for Indianapolis. The Colts have beaten up on the likes of the Jaguars, Titans, Texans and Giants. Unfortunately, wins that seemed impressive at the time over Cincinnati and Baltimore have lost some of their luster. Worse, Indianapolis has come up short against other top-tier teams like Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Unlike the last campaign where the club notched Ws against the Seahawks, Niners and Broncos, there's no resume-building victory for this year's Colts. Sunday bequeaths such an opportunity, one the team desperately needs to be taken seriously in the AFC.

On the opposite end of the spectrum reside the Patriots. Much has been made about Tom Brady's revival since his no-show at Arrowhead in Week 4. While Brady's contributions certainly have been a catalyst in the team's five-game winning streak, New England has not been powered by a solo act. In the past five weeks, the defense, a unit perennially overshadowed by its offensive counterpart, has caused 10 turnovers while surrendering just 21.6 points per contest. And though Brady deserves credit for leading the attack, Rob Gronkowski is the true spur for the Patriots offense. After a slow return from injury, the tight end has rejuvenated to his former self, averaging 103.2 yards per outing during the team's winning streak.

Concededly, this Pats roster is far from infallible, as the vulnerable Gronk holds a major card in their fruition. Moreover, New England has a brutal second-half second, with dates against the Colts, Lions, Packers, Dolphins and Bills. Nevertheless, with their evisceration of the Denver Broncos, the Pats hold the upper edge in gaining home-field advantage in the postseason. As long as Brady is under center, this will be a roster with championship aspirations.

So who wins this battle of AFC combatants? According to the award-winning WhatIfSports.com NFL simulation engine, the Patriots come out on top 56.9 percent of the time by an average margin of 24-21. For the rest of this week's projections, check below:

Please Note: The Texans-Browns, Bills-Dolphins, Bengals-Saints, Lions-Cardinals, Steelers-Titans and Broncos-Rams games were re-simulated on 11/13 to account for injuries and roster updates.

NFL Week 11 Predictions
MatchupWin %Avg. Score
Oakland Raiders17.718Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers82.330Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers30.219Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins69.827Simulate Game
Houston Texans41.419Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns58.622Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills45.518Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins54.520Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles46.223Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers53.824Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals46.824Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints53.225Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons51.224Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers48.823Simulate Game
Detroit Lions51.221Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals48.820Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings54.224Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears45.823Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers55.424Boxscore
@ New York Giants44.622Simulate Game
New England Patriots56.924Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts43.121Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks58.023Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs42.021Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers77.130Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans22.920Simulate Game
Denver Broncos82.132Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams17.919Simulate Game

Joel Beall is the Assistant Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jbeall@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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